Correlation, its not always Causation.
By: Rob | September 22nd, 2009
So the big talking point of the day, is the apparent “proof” that Man United get more stoppage time when they’re down than when they’re up. Of course, this has been suspected and pointed out before, but now, apparently it is backed up by statistics.
As Chris on the Front Page via The Guardian has shown, its statistically true than in games where Man United are winning there is less injury time in the games than when Man United are losing. The suggestion is that the ref’s are collectively influenced by Sir Alex Ferguson’s watch-pointing pressure and allow United more time.
But, as we should by now know, there are three kinds of lies, Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.
The way I see it, there are a few explanations as to this phenomona, and I’ll go through them below:
1) Its a cosmic coincidence.
Perhaps, its just chance, and Man United happen to have had the rub of the green, but its all fair, and an odd phenomena.
2) Teams winning against Man United time waste.
This seems to be the most likely answer to me. If you’re winning against Man United, you bring on the subs to waste time, you keep kicking the ball up to the corner, you stay down for longer to try and wind down the clock. Sadly, refs are pretty savvy to all this, and just stop the clock and add it on at the end. If Man United are winning, they tend not to resort to these tactics as they are the big club – but if Burnley are winning against Man United, of course they’ll try and run the clock down.
3) Man United do influence refs so that they get more injury time than anyone else
Which when you think of it, just sounds like small club paranoia, doesn’t it?
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Comments | Add your comment
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Finally, someone not looking at it rationally.
Posted from
Canada
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And by not looking at it rationally, I meant looking at it rationally.
Posted from
Canada -
It also could be that when United are winning 4-0, there’s no vital action and thus stoppage doesn’t go very far past the minimum. But when United are behind or equal, they are trying furiously trying to score and often do, thus leading to extra stoppage.
Posted from
United States -
Rob are you a Manchester United supporter?
Posted from
United States -
I posted this on the the main offside blog entry too, and am surprised it has not been brought up yet:
The fact that there is, on average, less added time when United are ahead means little if they don’t take into account the score of the game. If they are only ahead by a goal, it would be unfair. But when a team is ahead be 2-4 goals, it seems almost ridiculous to add on 4 minutes of extra time and I have seen refs regularly blow their whistle on 90 on the dot without complaints because the game was already over. Any game that United is winning 3-0 or 4-0 or something like that, it would be ridiculous for the ref to put in 4 or even 3 minutes of added time. So the ref will obviously blow the whistle, pretty much at 90 on the dot. That brings down the average…
In fact, the fact that the big four has a lower average of added time when ahead could simply be pointed to the fact that they are more likely to have more games that they are winning 3-0 or higher hence causing the ref to blow it at 90 and bringing their average down.
Posted from
United States -
nvm, jon did bring it up..
Posted from
United States -
“Rob are you a Manchester United supporter?”
Nope. Don’t support any of the Premier League clubs. Just enjoy the football.
Posted from
United States -
Perhaps one reason is that, when United is going to lose, they attack enormously just before the end, ball is always near the goal, referees usually want to see when the ball is in the “neutral ground”
Posted from
Finland -
Another thing which seems to have gone under most people’s radar (probably influenced by the rather Tabloid headline the Guardian gave it) is the fact that this phenomenon happens to an even greater extent at Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool.
Posted from
Spain -
Duncan, spot on! I feel as though this thing happens all throughout the Prem, but United have a reputation for late winners (Camp Nou 99 much? among others) combined with the whole ABU movement. What about the 8 minutes at Stoke when Chelsea were there, Stoke defended for their lives that day, surely they deserved a point.
Posted from
Canada
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